多维标度法在矿产预测中的应用   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

杨永强 《世界地质》1998,(1)

在矿产预测中常涉及一些定性变量,对这些变量的分析和应用,必须将定性描述的地质特征转化为用数值表示的变量,这就需要处理此问题的方法——多维标度法。笔者介绍了计量性的Ｔｏｒｇｅｒｓｏｎ法、准计量性的林知已夫数量化理论和非计量性多维标度法,并列举了其在矿产预测中的应用实例。  相似文献   

腐泥煤变质系列热解色谱和氯仿沥青“A”的特点   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

赵海舟 《中国煤田地质》1998,10(2):23-26

对滕县、淄博两煤田与腐殖煤共生的不同煤级的腐泥煤进行了热解和氯仿沥青“Ａ”的族组份分析,获得如下认识：热解的结果,Ｔｍａｘ、Ｓ１、Ｓ３、Ｉｐ全部高于共生腐殖煤,Ｉｔ全部低于共生腐殖煤,Ｓ２和Ｃｐ在低煤化阶段高于腐殖煤,而中,高煤化阶段则低于腐殖煤;氯仿沥青“Ａ”都随煤级的增高而减少,腐泥煤全部高于腐殖煤,腐泥煤从低煤级到高煤级其族组份的排序从饱和烃＞非烃＞芳烃＞沥青质变化到非烃＞芳烃＞沥青质＞饱和烃;而腐殖煤族组份的排序则从沥青质＞芳烃＞非烃＞饱和烃＞沥青质。  相似文献   

用历史类比法对中国强震活动的概率预测   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

陈立军  周霞 《福建地震》1998,(1)

本文将20世纪全球强震活动划分为7个活动期,以国内中强以上地震同期活动资料进行比较,对未来国内强震活动趋势作出中期的统计概率预测,似乎可以作为一个较为有力的判据。  相似文献   

A review of rock mechanics studies in the United States pertinent to earthquake prediction   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

J. Byerlee 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1978,116(4-5):586-602

Premonitory phenomena such as dilatancy, creep, acoustic emission, and changes in seismic velocity and attenuation, electrical resistivity, magnetic moment, and gas emission, which occur before fracture of initially intact rock and before stick-slip on faults or between finely ground surfaces of rock, have been reviewed and discussed in relation to earthquake prediction. This review is restricted to the results of laboratory experiments that have been carried out in the United States of America.  相似文献   

Seismic gaps and plate tectonics: Seismic potential for major boundaries   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

W. R. McCann  S. P. Nishenko  L. R. Sykes  J. Krause 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1979,117(6):1082-1147

The theory of plate tectonics provides a basic framework for evaluating the potential for future great earthquakes to occur along major plate boundaries. Along most of the transform and convergent plate boundaries considered in this paper, the majority of seismic slip occurs during large earthquakes, i.e., those of magnitude 7 or greater. The concepts that rupture zones, as delineated by aftershocks, tend to abut rather than overlap, and large events occur in regions with histories of both long- and short-term seismic quiescence are used in this paper to delineate major seismic gaps.In detail, however, the distribution of large shallow earthquakes along convergent plate margins is not always consistent with a simple model derived from plate tectonics. Certain plate boundaries, for example, appear in the long term to be nearly aseismic with respect to large earthquakes. The identification of specific tectonic regimes, as defined by dip of the inclined seismic zone, the presence or absence of aseismic ridges and seamounts on the downgoing lithospheric plate, the age contrast between the overthrust and underthrust plates, and the presence or absence of back-arc spreading, have led to a refinement in the application of plate tectonic theory to the evaluation of seismic potential.The term seismic gap is taken to refer to any region along an active plate boundary that has not experienced a large thrust or strike-slip earthquake for more than 30 years. A region of high seismic potential is a seismic gap that, for historic or tectonic reasons, is considered likely to produce a large shock during the next few decades. The seismic gap technique provides estimates of the location, size of future events and origin time to within a few tens of years at best.The accompanying map summarizes six categories of seismic potential for major plate boundaries in and around the margins of the Pacific Ocean and the Caribbean, South Sandwich and Sunda (Indonesia) regions for the next few decades. These categories range from what we consider high to low potential for being the site of large earthquakes during that period of time. Categories 1, 2 and 6 define a time-dependent potential based on the amount of time elapsed since the last large earthquake. The remaining categories, 3, 4, and 5, are used for areas that have ambiguous histories for large earthquakes; their seismic potential is inferred from various tectonic criteria. These six categories are meant to be interpreted as forecasts of the location and size of future large shocks and should not be considered to be predictions in which a precise estimate of the time of occurrence is specified.Several of the segments of major plate boundaries that are assigned the highest potential, i.e., category 1, are located along continental margins, adjacent to centers of population. Some of them are hundreds of kilometers long. High priority should be given to instrumenting and studying several of these major seismic gaps since many are now poorly instrumented. The categories of potential assigned here provide a rationale for assigning prorities for instrumentation, for future studies aimed at predicting large earthquakes and for making estimates of tsunami potential.Lamont-Doherty Geological Observatory Contribution No. 2906.  相似文献   

The regional dynamical model of the atmospheric ozonosphere   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Wang Weiguo  Xie Yingqi  Qiu Jinhuan  Liu Qing 《大气科学进展》1998,15(1):74-82

ＴｈｅＲｅｇｉｏｎａｌＤｙｎａｍｉｃａｌＭｏｄｅｌｏｆｔｈｅＡｔｍｏｓｐｈｅｒｉｃＯｚｏｎｏｓｐｈｅｒｅＷａｎｇＷｅｉｇｕｏ（王卫国）,ＸｉｅＹｉｎｇｑｉ（谢应齐）ＤｅｐａｒｔｍｅｎｔｏｆＥａｒｔｈｓｃｉｅｎｃｅ．ＹｕｎｎａｎＵｎｉｖｅｒｓｉｔｙ,Ｋ...  相似文献   

山东水资源分析及趋势预测   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6  

朱平盛  胡桂芳  张苏平 《气象》1998,24(3):3-8

通过分析近３９年山东省水资源的历史倾向性、阶段性、周期性,研究了水资源总量及径流量和地下水位的变化特征。结果表明,山东水资源量的年际变化大且呈快速下降态势,其中,地表径流量的下降尤为明显;水资源的变化存在一定的阶段性和周期性。通过分析降水与水资源的关系,发现两者的变化规律一致,但降水对水资源,特别是对地下水分量的影响有一定的持续性。建立均生函数预测模型,对未来水资源总量进行预测显示,１９９８￣２０  相似文献   

渤海的海冰数值预报   总被引：33，自引：0，他引：33  

白珊  吴辉碇 《气象学报》1998,56(2):139-153

根据渤海气候和冰情特点,在已有海冰模式研究基础上,提出模拟海冰增长、消融和漂移的动力－热力学模式。模式冰厚分布由开阔水、平整冰和堆积冰三要素表示。该模式已与数值天气预报模式、大气边界层模式、潮流模式联结,并于１９９０年到１９９６年在国家海洋环境预报中心进行渤海和北黄海冰情预报。其数值预报产品包括冰厚、密度集、冰速、冰外缘线、冰脊参数、局地冰厚以及接近石油平台的冰漂移轨迹等,传送到国家海洋预报台和渤海石油公司等有关用户。为了客观评价模式和检验预报结果,在逐日预报后进行统计检验。本文概述渤海冰情、卫星遥感应用、冰模式及其预报结果和检验。  相似文献   

北京暴雨与旱涝关系的分析   总被引：11，自引：1，他引：10       下载免费PDF全文

吴正华  储锁龙 《应用气象学报》1998,9(4):492-495

根据北京近百年的逐日降水资料,分析了汛期暴雨与汛期旱涝的关系。指出:汛期暴雨多少和强度对汛期降水丰歉具有决定性作用;在给出的3种暴雨指数中,相当暴雨日数与旱涝级别的相关性最好。文中还讨论了旱涝短期气候预测与暴雨过程的短期气候预测相结合的必要性。  相似文献   

“地气图”方法用于省级旱涝预测的实践     

郭维栋  赵红岩  李栋梁  郭英香 《干旱气象》1998,(4)

简要介绍用“地气图”方法进行降水预测的基本思路,总结此方法的预报实践,指出省级尺度旱涝预测需要解决的几个关键问题,强调除加密观测外,上游地热涡增强的能量频散作用是下游地热涡发展的重要原因  相似文献